Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 191146 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 646 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 A line of showers and storms will slowly diminish early this morning. Most of the area will experience dry conditions for the weekend, with the exception of north Mississippi as showers return Saturday. A brief cool down is expected as a reinforcing cold front will move through Sunday night with lows in the 40s Sunday morning and Monday morning. A warming trend will kick off Tuesday to return seasonable conditions. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 A line of storms associated with an upper level trough and associated cold front is nearly parallel to I-4O as of 3 AM. The sinking air will aid in the fizzling out of precipitation chances early this morning. A brief lull in shower activity is expected Friday afternoon for most of the region. As the low and trough pull away from the region, very light in coverage and accumulation rain showers are possible tonight. Slight chance PoPs were carried as there is low confidence in coverage and how quickly the dry air behind the frontal boundary will arrive. A weak open low pressure system will cross Texas as a surface cold front stalls over north Mississippi. This will bring showers back to the area, mainly in north Mississippi, due to the downstream moisture. After this round of showers, high pressure will gradually begin to slide in by Sunday to return rainfree conditions. Probabilities for thunder on Saturday are low as dewpoints are forecast to be in the low 50s or less. A reinforcing cold front will push the remaining showers out of the region by Sunday evening. Cooler temperatures are associated with a high pressure system as lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the 40s. Monday will feel much cooler as dry air and brisk northerly winds will prevail. Temperatures will begin to warm back to near and above climatology early next week as return flow settles in. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 A cold front has pushed through most of the area...soon to clear TUP. Post frontal moisture is still in place across the Mid-South causing widespread IFR conditions. Ceilings will slowly lift to MVFR late this morning. Over running showers look to develop and spread in from the west towards daybreak on Saturday impacting MEM. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...DKJ