Forecast Discussion
917 FXUS64 KMEG 070001 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 601 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Patchy dense fog is likely (over 80% chance) again tonight across the Midsouth. Visibility less than mile is expected. - Temperatures will moderate through the weekend, warming to near normal highs in the 50s on Sunday. - A cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Sunday, returning temperatures to below normal Monday. By Wednesday, we`ll be back to the 50s for high temperatures, ahead of a cold front late Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Another round of fog and low clouds/stratus is expected overnight. As a result, NBM guidance is likely a bit too warm. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s to middle 50s tomorrow. Fog will likely linger through midday due to light winds/limited atmospheric mixing. Zonal to weak northwest flow will persist across the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley through the weekend. A ridge will build across the western US early next week resulting in a stronger northwest flow pattern over the Midsouth. A shortwave will approach the Mississippi River Sunday evening resulting in our highest chance of rain(still less than 30%) over the next seven days. Temperatures Sunday night will dip into the low to middle 30s across northeast Arkansas, northwest Tennessee and the Missouri Bootheel. There will be a brief period before sunrise early Monday when temperatures will be cool enough for a few snowflakes, in northwest Tennessee, but the latest model trends indicate that moisture will become limited as the near or sub- freezing air arrives. As a result, the chance of any impactful wintry weather is very low(less than 10%). A cold front associated with the aforementioned shortwave will move across the region late Sunday. High temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 40 degrees along and north of the I- 40 corridor. Temperatures will rebound quickly. By Wednesday thicknesses support high temperatures in the middle 50s to near 60 degrees. Another weak shortwave will enhance the chance of rain across west Tennessee and northeast Mississippi Thursday afternoon, but at this time coverage is expected to remain low(less than 30%) and rainfall accumulation is expected to be less than one tenth of an inch. Most of the Midsouth will remain dry. Colder temperatures return Friday. Low temperatures are expected to be in the middle 20s to middle 30s and highs will be in the middle 30s to near 50 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Another challenging forecast as IFR/LIFR impacts from several sources are possible tonight at all terminals. Currently, IFR CIGs exist across northeastern AR and to the northeast along the TN/KY state border, impacting JBR over the past 12 hours. These CIGs are not anticipated to erode throughout the night, but gradually expand back south, per NBM/HREF guidance, eventually reaching MKL again around 04z-05z. MEM and TUP will remain SKC/FEW250 longer into the night, but a marine layer is forecast to advect in from the south, eventually bringing IFR/LIFR CIGs anywhere from 06z-08z at both sites. Towards 10z-12z, fog concerns begin to rise considerably. HREF members continue to bring heavily reduced visibility in the form of 1SM mist or fog to all terminals. Have opted towards the median solution between the HREF and NBM, which is less impactful, and the aforementioned HREF. This only brings fog to JBR/TUP with 1SM at MEM/MKL. However, trends will be monitored closely throughout the night with changes to this aspect of the TAF forecast likely. Visibility and CIG restrictions are expected to remain well past 12z, only beginning to improve around 16z-17z. IFR/MVFR CIGs are then expected through the rest of the period at all sites. Rain could occur towards 00z at MEM/TUP, but confidence is too low to include in this TAF issuance. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025 Patchy dense fog will affect much of the Midsouth again tonight. No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to scattered showers on Sunday, dry conditions are expected through midweek. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...JAB