Forecast Discussion
700 FXUS64 KMEG 292329 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 629 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 - Mostly dry weather will return to areas along and north of I-40 with a low to medium chance for additional showers across north Mississippi into tonight. - A low to medium chance for rain showers is expected Friday into Friday night south of I-40. - Cooler and drier weather is expected for the upcoming weekend, with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Late morning surface analysis places a cold front from New England back through Middle Tennessee, North Mississippi, and into Central and West Texas. GOES visible satellite trends show cloudy skies prevailing across the Mid-South with some clearing beginning to occur across portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. 12 PM temperatures range from the lower to middle 60s behind the cold front, to the 70s across northeast Mississippi. GOES Water Vapor satellite trends and 12Z upper air analysis show a weak shortwave embedded within nearly zonal flow aloft across the Southern Plains. Regional WSR-88D radar trends have shown additional late morning convective development near the ArkLaTex. This activity is expected to move east into central Mississippi into tonight, with rain chances persisting across north Mississippi near the stalled surface boundary. Any additional rainfall amounts will average less than one-tenth of an inch. Elsewhere, a 1023 mb surface high over the Central Plains will gradually build southeast into portions of the Mid-South into Friday, bringing a return of drier weather. There is a low to medium chance (30-60%) of showers returning Friday into Friday night as a shortwave trough off the Pacific Coast of California moves into the region, consolidating with a mid-level trough over the Mississippi Valley. Confidence remains high for cooler and drier air for the upcoming weekend into early next week following the passage of the upper level trough This upper-level trough will bring cooler air along with drier weather into early next week. Little change is expected in the upper level pattern next week with rain chances increasing again towards the latter half of next week ahead of another mid-level trough. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 A few -SHRAs have developed over eastern Arkansas triggering low to medium confidence that they will affect MEM and TUP this evening. Hi-res guidance also supports this activity. Confidence remains lower (30%) at MEM for -SHRAs on station but in close enough proximity to carry a VCSH for a few hours. There is a 40 to 50% chance for -SHRAs on station at TUP with a tempo accounting for this activity. Dry conditions will return overnight as the upper level disturbance moves east of the area. There is high confidence that VFR conditions will prevail through the period as surface high pressure nudges in from the northwest. AC3 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period due to recent wetting rains. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to 35 to 40 percent Thursday with 20ft winds remaining light. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...AC3