Forecast Discussion

594
FXUS64 KMEG 070505
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1105 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

The severe weather threat has ended for the Mid-South with the
bulk of severe storms situated over east Tennessee as of 930 PM.
A few lingering showers may develop overnight as the cold front
pushes further into Mississippi.

ANS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

Temperatures across the Mid-South will vary widely Friday through
this weekend as a front waffles north and south across the
region. Temperatures will be well above normal south of the front
and near normal north of the front. A couple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms are possible through Saturday. A strong cold
front will push through the region on Sunday and knock
temperatures down below normal for the early part of next week.
Several rounds of rainfall are expected by midweek next week as
the weather pattern becomes unsettled.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

Warm and humid conditions are prevalent across the majority of the
Mid-South this afternoon as we remain south of a stalled cold front.
The latest surface analysis places a quasi-stationary front from
West Virginia west southwest back through central Kentucky and back
into northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas. Areas along and
north of the front are in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees along
with light fog. Areas south of the front are well warm-sectored with
temperatures in the low to mid 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid
60s.

The latest mesoanalysis data shows a yield of up to 1500 J/kg of
SBCAPE collocated with 45 to 50 knots of bulk shear. The warm sector
has remained well capped throughout the day due to a stout 725mb
inversion. The front will begin to impinge on the warm sector by
late afternoon and early evening as the front sags south over the
next couple hours. Shear is nearly unidirectional through the
column, which suggests that any storms that form in the warm
sector will likely split. Although low level lapse rates remain
rather poor, mid- level lapse rates are rather healthy at 7 C/km.
The main threats with any strong to severe storms will be hail and
damaging winds. Although a tornado cannot be ruled out, SRH
values generally remain marginal below 100 m2/s2. The threat for
strong storms will end this evening as the front pushes through
much of the area late tonight.

The aforementioned front will stall over north Mississippi
tomorrow with the majority of the Mid-South on the cool side of
the front once again. Light passing showers are possible, but will
remain scattered at best. Temperatures will vary from 40s across
the north with lower 60s to the south. The boundary will lift back
north on Saturday with temperatures rebounding back into the upper
60s and lower 70s. A few showers are possible as the front lifts
back north. The front will march back south early Sunday morning
with temperatures dropping in the 30s and 40s on Sunday.

With mainly westerly flow aloft, the cool airmass will remain over
the region through early next week. The weather looks to become
unsettled next Tuesday as deep moist southwesterly flow sets up
across the Mississippi Valley. Several rounds of moderate rainfall
looks possible through the middle of next week.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

Messy TAF period continues with MVFR cigs across most of the Mid-South
and spreading southward across north MS currently. Would not be
surprised to see some improvements to VFR around daybreak across
the northern half of the area, but most will fall back to MVFR by
the afternoon. Could see an IFR cloud deck approach the airspace
near the end of the current TAF period, so have included for
JBR/MKL/MEM for now. NE winds between 10 to 12 kts will continue,
becoming E and falling back below 10 kts after 18Z. Winds will
start to shift south after 00Z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...CMA