SPC Mesoscale Discussion

SPC MD 2152

MD 2152 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 623... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI

Mesoscale Discussion 2152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...parts of western and northern Arkansas...southern
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623...

Valid 181912Z - 182115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 623
continues.

SUMMARY...Further thunderstorm development and intensification still
appears probable through 4-5 PM CDT.  This may include isolated to
widely scattered cells developing ahead of an organizing line,
accompanied by a risk for severe hail and a tornado or two, in
addition to increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...As mid-level forcing for ascent continues to spread
northeastward into the Ozark Plateau vicinity, associated
thunderstorm activity has yet to substantively intensify, though
there has been some increase in gusts at least approaching severe
limits in surface observations across eastern Oklahoma into
southwestern Missouri.  However, a seasonably moist boundary layer
ahead of this activity, and south of outflow associated with
preceding convective development across south central through east
central Missouri, driven by low/mid-level warm advection, is
becoming increasingly unstable, based on convective trends evident
in latest visible imagery.  

With additional insolation, in the presence of strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields (including 30-60 kt south to
southwesterly in the 850-500 mb layer), intensifying thunderstorm
activity still seems probable through 21-22Z.  It is possible this
may include isolated to widely scattered discrete thunderstorm
development in advance of the developing line, coincident with a
period of at least modestly enlarging low-level level hodographs. 
If this occurs, this activity would probably be accompanied by
better potential for producing severe hail, and the risk for a
tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 10/18/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35769344 37229274 37619208 37839088 37948945 36579017
            35509178 34079349 34459402 35769344 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH