Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
479
ABNT20 KNHC 060526
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chantal, located off the coast of the southeastern United
States.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
Summary for Tropical Storm Chantal (AT3/AL032025)
...CHANTAL A LITTLE STRONGER AND CLOSE TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE AS RAINBANDS MOVES ONSHORE... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 the center of Chantal was located near 33.2, -78.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 6a
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 699 WTNT33 KNHC 060552 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 ...CHANTAL A LITTLE STRONGER AND CLOSE TO LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS INCREASE AS RAINBANDS MOVES ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 78.8W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 78.8 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected overnight, followed by a turn to the northeast by the end of today. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina in the next few hours. Recent aircraft and land-based radar velocity data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening forecast after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Within the past hour, Springmaid Pier in South Carolina reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) gusting to 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force dropsonde data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning and should persist through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060247 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 78.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060249 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Strong convection continues to persist in the northeastern quadrant of Chantal, with the center located on the southwestern edge of the burst. This convection has been causing a gradual increase in organization of the storm, with an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft recently reporting 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt, which equate to about 45 kt at the surface. This data is also close to derived velocity radar data from Wilmington, showing peak 8000 ft winds of about 55 kt, and TAFB's latest satellite classification of 45 kt. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with these values. The current motion estimate is 350/7, and Chantal could turn to the north-northwest before landfall due to a narrow mid-level ridge. A turn to the northeast is expected later on Sunday as Chantal becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of the ridge. There is little time left for any intensification, and Chantal should make landfall within the next 6 hours at about the present intensity (45-50 kt). Steady weakening will occur after landfall with the loss of the warm water heat source, and Chantal is expected to dissipate over eastern North Carolina by early Monday. The track forecast was nudged to the east, with little change to the intensity forecast. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning soon and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of North Carolina will cause flash flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 32.7N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025 000
FONT13 KNHC 060248
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
RALEIGH NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 6 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
CHERRY PT NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW RIVER NC 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SURF CITY NC 34 10 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
WILMINGTON NC 34 14 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 31 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
FLORENCE SC 34 13 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
LITTLE RIVER 34 53 4(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 60 3(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 56 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
CHARLESTON SC 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Chantal Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 05:52:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Jul 2025 03:22:23 GMT
Local Statement for Charleston, SC
Issued at 1131 PM EDT
Local Statement for Wilmington, NC
Issued at 1112 PM EDT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060525
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Central East Pacific (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Some slow development is still possible during the next
day or two, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before
the system moves west-northwestward over progressively cooler water
by Monday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Roberts/Gibbs
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 06 Jul 2025 06:30:16 GMT