Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 311141
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is about emerge off of the west coast of Africa.
Environmental conditions are conducive for slow development of this
system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15
mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Beven
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 31 Aug 2025 12:30:15 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311122
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 31 2025
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Eleven-E, located in the east Pacific basin,
far southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
South of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms south of southern Mexico. An area of low pressure
is expected to form from this system within the next day or two,
and it is likely to become a tropical depression by the middle of
this week while moving west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to
15 mph just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
$$
Forecaster Gibbs
Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112025)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 11:00 PM HST Sat Aug 30 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.4, -122.3 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025 459 WTPZ31 KNHC 310832 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 122.3W ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 122.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 310831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025 0900 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 122.3W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 122.3W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.8W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.6N 125.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.3N 130.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.2N 132.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 14.3N 135.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.3N 140.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 122.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025 092 WTPZ41 KNHC 310834 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 30 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have become better organized over the past 12 hours. A 0507 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a well-defined low-level circulation with peak winds near 25 kt. However, given the continued improvement in the satellite presentation and higher subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates of 2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is moving westward near 8 kt, or 270/8 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge situated to its north. This ridge is forecast to remain in place throughout the 5-day period, maintaining a general westward motion across the western part of the eastern Pacific basin and into the central Pacific basin late this week. The official forecast track is close to the consensus aids. Environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, moist mid-level air, and low vertical wind shear support steady strengthening during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and could reach hurricane strength by around 60 hours (Tuesday). Thereafter, the system’s track near the 26 C isotherm, along with the possibility of some mid-level dry air entrainment, could limit further intensification later in the week. The intensity forecast is near the middle to higher end of the guidance envelope through midweek, then trends closer to the consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 14.4N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 14.6N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.6N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.5N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 14.3N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 14.2N 132.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 14.3N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 14.3N 140.1W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025 000
FOPZ11 KNHC 310833
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112025
0900 UTC SUN AUG 31 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 125W 34 3 45(48) 6(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
15N 125W 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 42(72) 1(73) X(73)
15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) 1(35)
15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13)
10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 52(70) 5(75)
15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 4(38)
15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 46(54)
15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22)
15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 08:36:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 31 Aug 2025 09:21:55 GMT